Luís Sequeira argues that the current decline in wine consumption reflects a transition phase rather than a structural crisis, highlighting opportunities for Alentejo wines
The current decline in global wine consumption should be understood as part of a broader transition rather than as a structural crisis of the sector, according to Luís Sequeira, President of the Board of the Alentejo Regional Wine Commission (CVRA). Drawing on the economic theory of long cycles developed by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff, Sequeira believes the wine sector is approaching the beginning of a new long-term phase.
In an interview with Alentrium.pt, Sequeira explained that economic history shows how capitalist economies evolve in long cycles, typically lasting between 40 and 60 years, alternating periods of expansion with phases of contraction. “After a phase of growth, there is inevitably a period of adjustment, which then gives way to a new expansion,” he said.
Changing consumption patterns
According to the CVRA president, current data confirms a reduction in wine consumption across several markets. However, he stresses that historical comparisons must be made with caution. “We are comparing very different realities,”he noted, recalling that in the 1950s wine consumption in countries such as France exceeded 150 litres per capita per year, at a time when wine was widely regarded as a basic source of calories and energy.
“Today, consumption is lower, but it is also more conscious and more closely linked to quality, moderation and well-being,” Sequeira explained. In his view, this shift represents a positive transformation for regions that have invested in differentiation and origin rather than volume-based production.
Alentejo positioned for the next phase
Within this context, Alentejo is, according to Sequeira, well placed to benefit from the sector’s evolution. “The model based solely on volume, low costs and wine as a commodity is no longer aligned with market trends. That was never the strategic path of Alentejo,” he said.
The region’s focus on quality, origin certification, brand development and value-added positioning is increasingly aligned with global consumption trends. “In a world where consumers are drinking less but better, Alentejo has the conditions to fully embrace the next cycle,” he added.
Sustainability and climate adaptation
Sustainability is another key factor shaping the future of the sector. Sequeira highlighted the growing impact of climate change, marked by rising temperatures, extreme weather events and prolonged periods of drought. “Adaptation is no longer optional,” he stressed.
In this area, Alentejo has made significant progress through a regional sustainability programme, which Sequeira describes as a competitive advantage. He also referred to recent international analysis pointing to Portuguese grape varieties as among those best adapted to changing climatic conditions.
“If these factors are properly leveraged, they can open a very positive future for Alentejo wines and for other Portuguese wine regions,” he said.
Strategy: premiumisation and international markets
To ensure long-term success, Sequeira emphasised the importance of continued investment in premiumisation and exports. “Differentiation and internationalisation are essential,” he said, underlining the need for institutional support to reinforce certification systems and market access.
As part of this strategy, the CVRA has established a partnership with AICEP – the Portuguese Trade & Investment Agency, through the AICEP Academy. According to Sequeira, participation levels are high, with around one third of Alentejo wine producers currently involved in the programme.
Opportunities for small producers through wine tourism
Addressing concerns about the impact of structural change on smaller producers, Sequeira argued that the transition does not imply exclusion. While exports tend to favour larger structures, wine tourism represents a significant opportunity for small and medium-sized producers.
“Wine tourism allows direct sales at the winery and strengthens the connection between consumers and the territory,” he said, noting that this segment has strong growth potential if properly organised and coordinated.
He concluded with a clear message: “The cycle of volume-driven growth has ended. Whether in wine production or wine tourism, the future lies in quality. Associating Alentejo with a strong and consistent quality signature is the key to success in this new cycle.”
